9: The Journey Through Possible Societies
9: The Journey Part One (Basic Information)
How will such a progression work?
To explain this, I will need a visual aid.
The back cover of this book contains an illustration marked ‘the Road Map of Possible Societies.’
I have described this road
map before, but here is a quick recap.
There are two things that can vary about a society:
1. The way people
interact with the land and other physical structures of the world around them;
and,
2. The way people interact with the other people around them.
The horizontal axis represents different ways people can interact with
each other; societies toward the left are built on a hierarchy, with
certain people having authority over others.
You may say that societies toward the left have more government than
those toward the right, but this doesn’t tell the entire picture, as there are
authoritarian bodies other than governments (organized religions, for example,
and institutionalized authoritarian structures including marriages). Systems at the far left are authoritarian,
with authoritarian bodies in control of all the important decisions in the
lives of the people; societies at the far right have no authoritarian bodies at
all.
The vertical axis represents different ways people can choose to
interact with the world around them.
Societies at the extreme bottom interact with the land by owning
it. They accept that humans or human
entities (countries, for example) own absolutely all rights to everything in
the physical world, from the surface of the planet to the stars in the sky. You could call these 100% ownability
societies. Societies at the extreme top
interact with the world as if the humans are caretakers to properties that
aren’t ownable in any way. You might
call these societies 0% ownability societies.
Intermediate societies accept that the people of the Earth are the
dominant species and therefore the only species with any ability to control the
treatment of the planet around us. They
can agree among themselves to respect private property rights in some cases
when this benefits the human race, and to allow people to buy and sell, and by
implication own certain rights to use certain parts of the planet as private
property. Societies toward the bottom
allow and accept greater ownability and societies toward the top allow and
accept lesser ownability. Although
there are many ways to create these intermediate societies, one option leads to
consistent results that can be compared and contrasted: leasehold ownership
systems can be made in any of them, with different leasehold ownership systems
created by selling leasehold rights in an auction market and then setting the
price/leasehold ratios indicated by the left scale of the chart. Thus, a price to leasehold payment ratio of
5:1 (a socratic leasehold ownership system) causes 16⅔% ownability, a system
where 16⅔% of the free cash flow is available to purchase with the rest unowned
and unownable.
Each point on the Road Map of Possible Societies represents a
combination of the two variables, one particular ‘way of interacting with the
planet’ and one particular ‘way for people to interact with each other.’
We were born into societies on the extreme bottom line (sovereignty-based societies, or societies with 100% ownability). All options on this line are sovereignty-based societies; they vary with regard to the degree of authoritarianism or, to simplify a little, the degree of government control.
All societies that exist as of 2020 are very close to the middle of the range. There are practical reasons for this: sovereignty-based societies have very powerful forces that push toward war. Societies (states, countries, or groups of states/countries) that are too extreme in one way or the other aren’t able to compete in war. Too much authoritarianism prevents innovation and progress (people must have the freedom to do things that lead to innovation) and make countries in this category unable to compete effectively against those with more advanced weapons. Societies too far to the right (very small governments and little authoritarianism) aren’t going to be able to be organized around war and will devote more to social programs and services, with less emphasis on keeping the military complex well-equipped and ready for battle. (Societies toward the right can work if we move farther up the chart, to areas where war risks are less severe, but they can’t compete in sovereignty-based societies. The book ‘Possible Societies’ on PossibleSocieties.com goes over the details.)
There are some differences between the different countries, sovereign states, unions of states, and countries in the world today, with some farther to the right of center and some farther to the left, but the differences aren’t very great. The numbers on the bottom scale represent the percentage of the total amount of value/wealth created that is under the control of governments. Most governments report these figures and the United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) goes over these figures to make them consistent and reports them on its website. If you want to know what percentage of total value created (called the ‘Gross Domestic Product’ or GDP by the CIA) is under the control of the government in any particular country, you can find this by searching in the CIA Factsheet for ‘percentage of GDP controlled by government.’
Because differences between current societies are very small, I simplify the analysis here by representing ‘current societies’ by a single point, the point at the exact center of the bottom line marked ‘2020 Societies.’
If we want to change societies, we can’t choose where we start. We start where our ancestors put us, which is at the point in the center of the bottom line of the Road Map of Possible Societies.
If we want to move to a society anywhere on the chart, we will need to go ‘through’ other societies to get there. For example, say that we want to move to a socratic society that has the same basic level of government involvement that exists in the world today. This would be represented by a point at the center of the line marked ‘Socratic Societies on This Line.' To get there, we must go along a line that is marked ‘Journey Line A.’
We are starting with a system where 100% of the rights to the wealth of the world are ownable and nothing is left unowned, unownable, and under the control and direction of the human race. The center scale of the Road Map of Possible Societies shows the percentage of the wealth of the world that is unownable and allocated by the direction of the people of society. Note that at the bottom line it is at 0%. If you go up a tiny bit off this line, you move to a system where some very tiny percentage of the wealth of the world is unowned and unownable.
If we create a system like the one described earlier in this chapter, where an NGO like the Community of Humankind gains control of certain parts of the world and sells socratic leasehold rights to private owners, the human race will gain some automatic and risk-free income from the land. At first, there will be only one property in the system, so we will have only a tiny income from the land. To put this another way, a very tiny part of the yearly wealth the planet produces will be considered unowned and unownable and will flow to the human race through automatic mechanisms.
This will pull us off the extreme bottom line. It is true that, at first, the wealth that is unowned and ownable and directed by the human race will be very, very small, perhaps only a tiny fraction of 1%. But any positive number is more than 0%. As time passes, more and more properties get into the system and the properties that are in the system get improved so that they are more bountiful and then sold for higher prices, causing the wealth that goes to the human race to increase. As more wealth falls into this category, we will move upward along the line marked ‘Journey Line A.’ Each movement will take us to a society that is slightly different than the one we had before.
The Journey: Part Two (Changes in Latitude)
As we go upward along this line, we will move to societies with different flows of value and different incentives. The scales on the extreme right side of the Road Map of Possible Societies indicate the strength of two important kinds of incentives: incentives to destroy value and incentives to create value.
Some societies work in ways that send money/wealth to people who do things that harm the planet or human race. These societies destroy what we may call ‘value,’ which can be broadly defined to include anything that humans want or need. A clean environment is ‘value.’ A safe living situation, where people are free from the threat of war is ‘value.’ Some societies work in ways that send wealth to people who destroy value. This creates financial incentives to destroy value. This book calls incentives that encourage people to do things that destroy value ‘destructive incentives.’
Different societies work in ways that lead to incentives of different strengths. Some societies have very powerful destructive incentives; they send a lot of wealth to people who do things that reduce the amount of ‘value’ on Earth. Some societies send small amounts of money/wealth to destroyers; they have weaker destructive incentives. Other societies don’t send any money/wealth to destroyers; they don’t have destructive incentives at all.
The scale on the inside right of the Road Map of Possible Societies indicates the strength of destructive incentives. Note that sovereignty-based societies (those all the way at the bottom) have the strongest possible destructive incentives: they literally make all of the wealth the world produces and contains available to people who do things that harm the human race and planet. Anyone who can convince people that they are a ‘country’ and that she is the leader of that country can start war and start conquering land. Once she is the conqueror, she can take anything the land produces and contains and use it for anything she wants. If the part of the world she conquers contains oil, she can pump it and sell it.
Normally, the conqueror isn’t going to build the pumps personally; the conqueror will form a partnership with a corporation and the corporation will pump the oil and send a share of the revenue to the conqueror. This is what happened with Dick Cheney and his partner Halliburton: Cheney arranged for his government to conquer the Iraq oil fields, which are the second richest in the world, generating about $200,000,000 per day in revenue. Cheney, as one of the majority shareholders in Halliburton, gets a share of this money.
The system at the extreme bottom of the chart represents systems where all of the wealth of the world is available to go to destroyers; it has the strongest possible destructive incentives, 100% in the chart.
Move up and you go to systems where some of the wealth the world contains and produces is under the direct control of the human race, leaving less to go to destroyers. Less is available for destroyers, so the destructive incentives are weaker. (The mechanisms that cause the wealth to go to destroyers aren’t really as simple and obvious as this explanation implies; the book ‘Possible Societies’ explains them in detail. Here, I am just trying to give you a general idea.) If we start our ‘journey through societies’ at the point marked ‘2020 societies here’ and then move up, we move through a range with progressively weaker destructive incentives.
Incentives are behavioral motivations. You could think of them as invisible hands pushing people to act a certain way. These invisible hands work by basically pushing people toward a river of money. The bigger the river of money, the stronger the incentives. (You may be able to see why Cheney and his minion George Bush were willing to risk a global war that might destroy the planet to get Iraq’s oil: $200,000,000 per day is a lot of money.) As we move up through the chart, we move to societies with weaker destructive incentives: the invisible hands are still there, they just aren’t pushing as hard.
Of course, at first, the destructive incentives will still be extremely strong, and we won’t expect a huge reduction in the amount of destructive behaviors. But incentives have a very well understood and very consistent impact on behavior: give people less money to destroy and, although many people will continue to destroy, some people who would have chosen to destroy if more money had been involved, will decide that it isn’t worth it and choose not to. Rates of destruction will fall. Perhaps they will only fall by tiny amounts, but they will fall.
The outer scale represents the strength of different kinds of incentives: some societies work in ways that allow people to get money/wealth if they do things that lead to invention, innovation, technological advancements, mechanization, and increases in the amount of wealth that the land can produce in sustainable ways. Some societies work in ways that allow people to get money/wealth if they do things that lead to more value existing in the world. Again, we can interpret the term ‘value’ in a very broad sense. The world has more value if there is no polio or smallpox available to kill our children. The world has more value if people are free from the threat of war and the risk of destruction.
Constructive incentives are the opposite of destructive incentives. One encourages people to create value (again, broadly defined) and the other encourages people to destroy value.
If you start at the point marked ‘2020 societies’ and go upward on the line marked ‘Journey Line A,’ eventually your journey will intersect with the line marked ‘Minimally Sustainable Societies Here.’
Part Three: Minimally Sustainable Societies
There are certain conditions that must be met to have a sustainable society. (I find it strange that many people advocate sustainability without even trying to define the term. How can we move toward a sustainable society without knowing what this term means?)
It is possible to create more value than is destroyed indefinitely. We can have better and better housing, better and better food, better and faster public transportation, cleaner air, increased health, all without limit. There is no point where life becomes too good and we all destroy ourselves.
However, it is not possible to do the opposite forever. If a society destroys more value than it creates, eventually some key item of value, say the atmosphere, the ozone layer, the state of health of the people, or something won’t be sufficient to support us, and we will perish. It is not possible to continue to destroy more value than is being created forever.
Any society that destroys more value than is created is unsustainable. If we know this, we understand the absolute minimum conditions needed for sustainability: the amount of value that is created over time must be equal to or greater than the amount of value destroyed.
If you start at the societies at the extreme bottom of the chart, then move upward, you move to societies that are different in two ways. First, destructive incentives are weaker as you go up, for the reason discussed above. Second, the constructive incentives—the incentives to create value—get stronger.
This happens for several reasons that mainly have to do with taxes and regulation. Sovereignty-based societies have no common income that can be used by the people to meet their common needs. These societies work in ways that create governments that need enormous amounts of income. War is a constant risk; it can come at any time and, when it comes, governments need every single bit of wealth (money in systems that use money) they can get for the war. Even during times when there is no war, they can’t stop spending, as they must be prepared for war. This is a fantastic expense and governments must get the wealth to cover these costs somehow. Generally, they get this wealth through taxes.
These societies also totally disenfranchise the majority class of society, the working class. The working class gets no share of the bounty at all; in fact, they get nothing, and starve to death, unless they can get jobs. Technology is causing jobs in production (creation of value) to disappear. Governments must find ways to create jobs. Most of the job creation programs in effect today focus on paying destructive industries subsidies so that they can compete with non-destructive industries and keep the non-destructive industries (which don’t create jobs) from taking over. These subsidies on destruction started out small but must get bigger and bigger over time to keep people working. As I write this in 2020, these programs are truly massive: globally, subsidies on destruction exceed a trillion United States dollars a year and the only thing that the global governments spend more on is military activities.
Governments spend such fantastic amounts in these two areas that they need massive taxes just to function. As a result, the tax burden is often about 50%.
Note: the really important
number for people who want to improve is called the ‘marginal tax
rate.’ This is the tax rate on additional
income that is generated as a result of changes to a taxpayer’s situation,
including improvements that lead to more creation of value. Marginal tax rates are actually far higher
than average tax rates. One reason for
this is ‘bracket creep.’ If you do
something that drives up your income, you pay a higher tax on the increase
than you would pay otherwise, because you will be in a higher tax bracket. Often, marginal tax rates are more than 90%,
meaning that the government gets 90 cents out of each additional dollar people
generate in income.
Obviously, the more of marginal income you can keep, the stronger your
incentives to make improvements that drive up income ‘at the margin.’
Socratic leasehold ownership systems work in ways that cause wealth to flow into public coffers automatically and without risk. The money that goes to the public does not come from anything anyone has done to earn: it is always a part of the free cash flow and free cash is, by definition, free. It is always unearned.
If the public has revenue that comes from unearned income, there is no need to take money that people have done anything to earn. In the socratic society discussed earlier (for Pastland), people could keep everything that came from improvements that drive up cash flows on properties; there was no need for taxes and, since taxing people for doing things that create more value and make life better don’t make sense (you don’t punish people for doing things you want them to do) there was no reason to have them.
If we start at the point marked ‘2020 societies here’ and go upward, we move closer to a situation where people aren’t penalized for improving the world. As the Community of Humankind gains the ability to regulate international disputes, international tensions will fall and governments will find it isn’t necessary to spend as much as before on weapons, allowing them to reduce taxes. As the Community of Humankind takes over services that the people want, again, governments will be able to reduce taxes. People who improve anything will be able to keep more of the increases in revenue from the improvement. Constructive incentives will grow in strength.
Incentives mater. They affect people’s behavior. Not everyone will react every time the incentives change; in fact, most people won’t. But the incentives will make a difference. We can expect the behaviors related to the ‘creation of value’ to increase and the behaviors related to the destruction of value to decrease. We can expect the amount of value created over time to increase and the amount of value destroyed to decrease.
At some point, we will reach the line marked ‘minimally sustainable societies on this line.’
Minimally sustainable societies are NOT non-destructive societies. Destruction is still a part of these societies. They still have destructive incentives and, if destructive incentives exist, people will destroy value. But these societies work in ways that lead to far weaker destructive incentives than exist in the sovereignty-based societies we started with at the beginning of the trip.
Sovereignty-based societies also have incentives that lead to the creation of value and modification of the Earth so that it produces more things of value over time. Incentives matter: they impact behavior. Because of these incentives, we would expect far more value to be created in sovereignty-based societies than in societies without constructive incentives, like natural law societies. Minimally sustainable societies work in ways that lead to even stronger constructive incentives than exist in sovereignty-based societies. Again, incentives matter. They affect behavior. We would expect greater efforts to create value, to modify the planet so it produces more value and wealth over time, in minimally sustainable societies than in sovereignty-based societies.
Minimally sustainable societies are those that have strong enough incentives to create value and weak enough incentives to destroy value that the total amount of value of all kinds (including the value of having clean air, stable weather, and safe living conditions) does not decline. This is the minimum condition needed to have a sustainable society.
It is not the only condition. Obviously, if value is being created by turning wood into fancy sailing yachts but is also being destroyed by destroying the air and water the people depend on, the system will not be sustainable. In sovereignty-based societies, the human race has no revenue and no way to impact such variables. (The governments of countries can affect them, but governments of countries don’t have incentives to improve global variables like atmospheric carbon dioxide levels or war risks. We, the people of the world, care about such things and once we have control of wealth, we can create structures to deal with them.)
However, it is a minimum condition: the destruction of value must be less than or equal to the creation of value to have a society that is even potentiallysustainable.
Part Four: How Far Do We Have to Go?
I put the level of minimal sustainability at about 97% on the chart. This number refers to the percentage of the bounty (free cash flow) of the world that is buyable and ownable by private individuals and does NOT go to the human race. To put this another way, the human race would get 3% of the bounty of the world. To make this happen, about 3% of the cash flow-generating properties on Earth would have to be controlled by socratic leasehold ownership.
For comparison, a socratic society like the one described earlier for Pastland would be an 16⅓% ownability society; this means that 83⅔% of the bounty of the world would flow to the human race, more than 40 times the amount that goes to us in the minimally sustainable societies.
This is an approximation of course; it is basically a guess about the minimum amount of wealth that the human race would have to have in order to have enough control over important variables in our world to reach minimum sustainability.
How much money would we, the people of the world, get each year under this condition? The best figures I could find for global value creation come from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, that provide estimates of these figures. The most recent figure on the analysis page for the World Bank (taken from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD) show that the global production of value is about $80 trillion a year. How much of this is bounty depends on many different factors and would be pretty much impossible to work out, but we don’t need an exact figure for this analysis, just a very rough number. A figure of half would be very conservative; in other words, it is almost certain that more than half of all production is bounty. We live on an extremely bountiful world and it gets more and more bountiful each day as machines replace workers, allowing wealth to be created and collected with no effort. (A system where machines produced everything would have zero labor costs. Many economists argue that labor is the only true cost of production: if things are produced without labor costs of any kind, with zero-cost energy systems like solar power running the machines, everything that is produced is bounty.) So we have a number to work with, let’s say that the total bounty of the world (the total global free cash flow of all land, corporations, infrastructures, and anything else that is ownable and generates free cash flows) is about $40 trillion. If we get 3% of this, we end up with $1.2 trillion ($1,200,000,000,000) per year. Remember how socratic leasehold ownership works: leasehold owners must put up a price that is five times the leasehold payment. Because they know they will lose this entire price if the leasehold payment is even a second late, they have powerful incentives to make this payment and the income of the Community of Humankind will be automatic. In the event they miss the payment, all rights to the property will revert to the Community of Humankind, which may then sell the leasehold rights again for five times the amount of the missed payment. This system works in ways that lead to an automatic and risk-free income for the human race.
This income does not come from taxes. It is a flow of wealth that comes from the productive properties of the world anyway. We, the members of the human race, have set up a system that allows private individuals to control parts of the world without consent as long as they follow the rules that we have created to protect the planet and human race, and share the flows of wealth that come from the land with the human race.
When we start out in our journey toward a healthy society, we get none of this wealth. As we progress, we get more and more. At a certain point, we will get 3% of this free wealth. (For this to be true, about 4% of the cash flow-generating properties on Earth would have to be controlled with socratic leasehold ownership.)
Obviously, 3% is not much; it is nothing like the 83⅔% that we would get in a socratic society. But we live on an incredibly bountiful world. When we get up to this percentage, we, the members of the human race collectively, control wealth that works out to be about $800 per person per year. This may be easier to picture if we think of it as a ‘per family’ figure and multiply it by 4, to get $3,200 per year per family on Earth.
Again, this isn’t much. But it is enough to make a real difference. The human race has certain common problems that the governments of the countries of the world aren’t doing anything to solve. (In fact, the governments of the world are responsible for the most serious of these problems; they create them intentionally.) Once we get to minimally sustainable societies, we reach the point where we have enough power and wealth to set up global structures to deal with the most serious of these problems.
The governments of the world will have far less pressure on them to encourage destruction and make war. They will see that the creation of jobs, while still necessary over the short run, won’t be necessary over the long run. Even at this tiny percentage of the bounty, we will have enough money to provide some basic incomes for the people of the world.
A ‘basic income’ is a cash distribution from the common fund of the human race that is divided among the people of the world. This is one of the election options, as discussed earlier in the analysis of ‘Public Administration in a Socratic.’ We can vote money into this fund and it will immediately be divided among all people who have registered to receive this money through electronic transfer.
We will all be able to see that there will come a time when the human race will have enough income, from our share of the bounty of the planet, to provide basic incomes that can meet the basic needs of the people. After this time comes, the people will gain nothing by having their governments take money from them and use this money to subsidize destruction or create military tensions to create jobs.
When the human race gets to this level (again, about 3% of the bounty of the world flowing to us) we will have more power than the great majority of the world’s governments. This will put us into a position to start to do some of the things that Dunant had in mind for the organization he created that have a real impact on international relations. We can create a true World Court, not the token organization that makes only non-binding decisions that we have now, but a body with tools that it can use to compel the governments of the world to accept its rulings, and to create agreements that will push the governments of the world to work together to ensure the compliance of governments that have lost cases at the World Court and are required to give up land or control over people that they have gained through activities the court rules are unacceptable.
We will have the ability to create binding limitations on carbon emissions and have the governments of the world sign accords agreeing to enforcement mechanisms that the human race has funded. (In sovereignty-based societies, governments can agree to anything, even somethings they have no intentions of doing, because there are no enforcement mechanisms in place. They can simply make up some excuse and ‘pull out’ of the accords, or simply modify them, or report compliance when it isn’t happening, and there isn’t anything anyone can do about this.)
Once we get to this point, we, the members of the human race, will have tools that we can use to get governments to back off on their attempts to prevent sustainable processes like solar from taking over. Currently, the great majority of the governments in the world have complex policies designed to protect jobs in destructive industries that can only work if the switch to sustainable processes doesn’t take place. When we get to a level of about 3%, we will have enough power through our control over wealth to educate the public about these policies so that they don’t support them and replace government officials who do things that harm the human race in the countries of the world. Again, 3% is not much. But there is already pressure in this area: more and more people are realizing that their governments are tricking them to prevent the world from moving to sustainable systems.
All the above changes will work together. It won’t eliminate destruction, but we don’t have to eliminate destruction to get meet the minimum conditions needed for sustainability. We merely have to reduce the amount of destruction enough, and increase the rate of progress and growth enough, to get the progress we are making to be enough to offset the destruction that is still taking place.
How far do we have to go?
This particular estimate, to a system where 3% of the bounty of the world flows to us, is just a guess. But I think it is, if anything, conservative (in other words, we may easily get to sustainability with far less of the world’s wealth flowing to the Community of Humankind.) Technology is already growing at an extremely rapid rate, creating many tools that we can use to pull the human race together and deal with common problems, even without us having any structural organization at all. The internet is making it harder for governments to convince their people that the ones born on the opposite side of imaginary lines are evil monsters who deserve only death and misery. We can get both sides of the story; we can see that the ones our governments want us to kill have children, feelings, and that they care about the same things that we care about. When we see a mother searching for her children in a war zone, it is hard to really think of her and her children as enemy monsters to be destroyed.
Solar costs have plummeted and now are so low that the old argument against solar—that it is too expensive to consider—aren’t even remotely believable. (The book, ‘Anatomy of Destruction’ shows that solar costs fell below the costs of the most common destructive systems as long ago as 1978, when solar technology was still primitive. Solar costs now are less than 5% of what they were in 1978 and the costs of destruction have only gone up. As a result, even the analysis that is designed by the gas and oil industry—like the BP energy survey, which would show that destruction is cheaper if there were any way to twist facts to make it appear to be true—shows that solar is the cheapest energy system available.) Governments have only been able to prevent a switch to sustainable energy systems with extremely aggressive action, restrictions on use of solar (like PURPA, which makes it illegal to sell solar energy in the United States; this is discussed in the book ‘Anatomy of Destruction’), massive taxes on solar, and massive subsidies on destruction. Even without any organized and concerted effort on the part of the human race, governments are having a very hard time preventing sustainable systems from taking over. I think that this particular estimate of the power the human race would have to have to counter the efforts of countries, with 3% of the bounty of the world flowing to the human race each year, is very conservative; we could probably do it with a lot less.
How far are we from the line marked ‘minimally sustainable societies here?’ We don’t have nearly enough information to determine this. However, once we begin on the journey and get started with the system, sending some (rather than none) of the bounty of the world to the human race, we will be able to map the progress and make a better estimate. Again, I think that the 3% figure is conservative. Chances are we will be able to meet the minimum conditions for sustainability long before that.
How long will it take to get there? Obviously, if we don’t know where ‘there’ is, we can’t really estimate the time it will take to get there. But we have evidence to show that NGOs that do things that the people really want done can grow extremely rapidly. I think it is reasonable to estimate that, if we started today, we could meet the minimum conditions for sustainability in less than 30 years.
A Look Around
Sometimes, when you are on a trip, you may see something that wasn’t on your agenda and stop to take a look. You may find a wonderful beach, a fantastic waterfall, a great museum, or a walking street (like La Florida in Buenos Aires, Las Ramblas in Barcelona, or Nan Jing Da Ja in Shanghai); sometimes, you may find something along the way that is so nice you decide you want to stay there, rather than go on to your original destination.
Once we get to minimally sustainable societies, we can look around. Do we want to continue down the path to the socratic? Perhaps. Perhaps we may want to pause a little, remain where we are so we can consolidate our gains. The socratic is a very nice society, of course, but we are starting from a terrible mess with many hardships. Rather than focusing on ‘getting there at any cost’ we may want to focus on expanding the quality of life for the people of the planet, dealing with the population so that problems related to population stress don’t get any worse, or take some other steps to make our eventual progress easier but will slow us down and push the ultimate goal farther into the future.
Population:
The definitive work about population was Thomas Malthus’ 1798 book ‘On Population.’ This book was and still is highly controversial but it really the only book I could find that takes an objective look at this issue.
The book points out that the population of the working class will grow exponentially if there is enough food to support higher populations. (More food means lower food prices; if a working class family can support more members, more will be born and grow to maturity, leading to very rapid population growth.) More recent analysts call this effect a ‘population explosion.’ This explosion only takes place in the working class and is very pronounced in the most impoverished areas: greater poverty means more rapid population growth.
Since he wrote this book, his basic theories have been confirmed and you can easily look at the data and see the result: populations with greater prosperity tend to have smaller families with the most prosperous half of the global population either entirely stable or actually falling. The most impoverished demographics have very rapid population growth, with some—the most impoverished part of the human population—doubling every generation. If you look at a list of the countries with the highest population growth rate in the world today (you can find this at https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2002rank.html) and cross-reference it with a list of the poorest countries in the world (available at https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/221.html) you will see that it is basically the same list. All of the 25 countries with the highest grow rates are in Africa; all have total gross domestic product per person of less than $2,500 per person.
Why does this happen? Analysts point to two reasons. The first is a lack of birth control. Extremely poor people can’t afford it. We all want to have sex and, without birth control, sex leads to pregnancy. Once the woman is pregnant, she has no choice: there will be a baby (if she can’t afford condoms, she certainly can’t afford abortions). Mothers don’t let their babies starve to death if they can help it so they will do anything they can to keep the baby alive. If there is enough food, and any way for the mother to get it, the population will grow and can easily double each generation.
The other reason this happens is social security. Very poor countries don’t have it. People get sick and will get old. Without any family to care for them, they will die. Very poor families need to be large to be secure.
Most countries in the world today have enough prosperity to keep populations stable. (At least this is true for natural increase; immigration from poor countries is also driving up the population of wealthier countries.) But the population in extremely poor areas is exploding. It is growing at a fantastic rate that is putting pressure on resources all around the world.
Once we get to the point where we meet the minimum conditions necessary for sustainability in general, we may want to divert some attention to the population problem so we can reduce the pressure on resources caused by the need to feed an ever-growing number of extremely poor people. This is actually a pretty simple fix, but it will require allocating a lot of wealth to two areas that may not seem like a very high priority at the current time:
1. Reliable, affordable, safe birth control for everyone who wants it.
2. Global social security programs that are designed specifically to reduce the stresses that induce the very poor to have large families.
The problem of an exploding extremely impoverished population will make it extremely difficult to limit the power and authority of the governments of countries. As time passes, there will be more and more pressure on them to isolate their countries to prevent a massive inflow of people with no skills, no education, no wealth, no incomes, and no experience with the realties of life in the countries they flee to. We can already see the impacts of this: isolationist policies have been increasing in popularity for decades. These policies have widespread popular support among the wealthier nations of the world and it is very hard to enact policies that tie the human race together when so many people will do just about anything they can to make sure that the people from other countries can’t even walk on the land they claim as theirs.
What can we do about this? It seems obvious: the first step is to create a global birth control system that makes the highest quality pregnancy prevention methods available today available to even the poorest of women, around the world. The second step is to devote funding—a lot of it—to the development of better birth control methods so that, after these systems become available, the only babies born will be those that people want and plan for.
The third step is to study and examine the pressures that lead to the clear relationship we observe between poverty and population growth. If it turns out that the problem is a lack of social security, we need to extend the same social security systems that are available to people in more prosperous countries to the rest of the world. Obviously, this is going to be expensive over the short run. But any success is going to bring massive dividends. The population explosion among the poor will go away and, when this happens, poverty becomes a solvable problem. At some point, we won’t have to worry about the population of impoverished people exploding anymore, because there won’t be any more poverty.
Once we get to minimally sustainable societies, we have a little bit of time to reflect. We can look around us. We can stop worrying about how we are going to avoid extinction because extinction isn’t going to be a threat anymore. We can begin to examine ways to create the best society that humans can have, and then make it happen.
Life In Minimally Sustainable Societies
Superficially, minimally sustainable society are extremely similar to sovereignty-based societies. People still have jobs, they still get up early and drink coffee, commute to work, listen to the news, and shop at supermarkets. They still pay for things either with cash or plastic, and most of the income of most people still comes from their jobs, their business income, or from returns on wealth. The great bulk of the properties on Earth will still be owned and controlled through freeholds, with no real difference in the way this system works. (The minimally sustainable societies only need about 3% of the properties to be controlled by leasehold ownership.)
Girls will still try to make themselves attractive for boys, boys will still try to get girls to go to bed with them, the social games people at all levels play will be the same as they were in the sovereignty-based societies that used to exist. The financial structures don’t need to be significantly different than those in place in our 2020 societies, prices won’t be much different, the options people have for making money and spending it won’t be much different. Superficially, minimally sustainable societies are very similar to sovereignty-based societies. But they are entirely different structurally. They have flows of value that bring the human race together into a true Community of Humankind. The entities we call ‘governments of countries,’ although still very important, will no longer be omnipotent. They will no longer be able to dictate global policy to the people of the world and force us all to accept whatever they tell us.
The differences aren’t enough to completely solve the problems that threaten us. But they are great enough that people with at least reasonably good eyesight will be able to see that our situation is not hopeless. We will have a venue, authority, and power. We will have control over variables that we can use, if we want, to increase the amount of authority and power that belongs to the human race. We will see that our destiny really does belong to us and we can make the world work in a safe, sane, and healthy manner. If we want to do this.
Beyond Sustainability
It is hard to make any decisions of any real importance if you are being forced to pay a game of Russian Roulette and may blow off your own head at any moment.
Humans can clearly organize the realities of our existence many different ways. Which is best? This is actually a very complicated topic. I have tried to provide a starting place in this analysis in the book ‘Possible Societies,’ available on the PossibleSocieties.com website. But this is just a starting point. To really understand our options, we will need to take a lot of time. We will have to create new sciences and do research in them. I think that we will find when we approach this topic scientifically, it opens our horizons in wonderful ways. We will find that we are capable of having societies that bring us prosperity, peace, and a safe, clean world where we can ask important questions that will help us find a better future.
I needed to present an example of a healthy society for the points of this book, so you could see that a healthy society is possible. It is within the capabilities of the wonderful and terrible beings around us that we call ‘humans.’ The socratic is just an example. It is one of the places that we might go when heading toward a better existence.
Are socratic societies the best societies humans can form?
Probably not. You can’t expect to get everything right the first time. But it doesn’t have to be the best society to make the point I am trying to make: we can survive as a race. If we start where we are now, and then head in the general direction of the socratic, eventually we will get to minimally sustainable societies. Once we are there, we are out of the woods. We can take our time and find the best place to go from there.
It’s hard to make a long-term decision about your future while you are in the middle of a forced game of Russian Roulette and your head could become mush in the next second.
In the movie the ‘Deerslayer,’ enemies force captured prisoners of war to play Russian Roulette against each other and then place bets on the outcome. Obviously, it is very stressful to have to play this game. Imagine one of the soldiers being forced to play this game gets a call from his wife who wants him to decide among several houses she has selected for the family to buy and raise their children, after he gets out of the military. I don’t think he is going to make the best possible decision until he is sure he is actually going to survive.
Once we get to minimally sustainable societies, we will be in a position to look at the next step. We may see that we can get to a better system if we simply keep heading in the same direction. We may want to go somewhere else. But either way, we will have taken our destiny out of the hands of the primitive and barbaric people who created the extremely destructive and dangerous societies that we had been in before and put our destiny into our own hands.